The People's Front : A Marriage of Convenience

I see the formation of People's Front (PR) state governments in Selangor and Perak as a pragmatic move by the Opposition to wrest power from the ruling National Front (BN) after the March 2008 General Elections. In both states PAS actually holds the trump card without which the PR could not have garnered enough majority to form the respective state governments. If PAS withdraws from the present coalition, the PR government in the two states shall inevitably collapsed. Beside Selangor and Perak, the states of Kelantan and Kedah have come under the control of PAS ( a PR component) single-handedly while Penang comes under the rule of the Chinese-based Democratic Action Party (DAP) (another PR component).

In Selangor, to say the least, I have sensed for a quite a while already that it has never been a bed of roses for PAS to be a partner in the state coalition. It is either PAS representatives not having shown enough teeth or they simply suffer from a political inferiority complex, or they are being sidelined from major issues affecting the state. And these discomforts have just been confirmed by Dr. Hasan Ali, the Selangor PAS State Commissioner, who stated that PAS is at the stage of adjusting itself in this new political set-up and that it would take time to smoothen things up.

I would venture to theorise that UMNO is closely monitoring the situation and would jump at any opportunity that shows cracks within the PR coalition. And if PAS can be lured to defect to UMNO/BN, immediately UMNO/BN shall be poised to regain control of Selangor, Perak, Kedah and Kelantan without much sweats, leaving behind Penang solely in the hands of the PR. This must be the only rationale of Abdullah Badawi, the UMNO President, for having initiated political dialogues with PAS in the interests of, supposedly, Malay and Islamic unity. Not a bad political mathematics !
But after the political debacles suffered by PAS when joining the ruling BN at the federal and state levels in the 1970's, I don't think PAS would be so naive as to allow itself to be bitten twice by UMNO from dishonest political wheelings & dealings. After all UMNO is already is a sinking ship according to some enlightened political pundits.